Australia tracking a decade behind 2050 net zero target

Independent analysis of Australia’s path to net zero has found progress is being made, but transitioning to renewable energy and cleaner industry and transport needs to happen much faster to reach the 2050 target.

Net Zero Australia (NZAu) has released a project tracker showing current decarbonisation rates align with Australia reaching net zero a decade late, around 2060.

The study – a partnership between The University of Queensland, University of Melbourne and Princeton University – models the scale, cost, pace and impacts of Australia’s energy transition.

The report card

UQ Director of NZAu Associate Professor Simon Smart said the enablers, drivers and outcomes of net zero have each been rated as either ‘on track’, ‘at risk’ or ‘off track’.

“The project tracker is within Phase 2 of our study which started in 2021, looking at the specific aims and challenges to decarbonisation,” Dr Smart said.

“The bright spots we’ve found include rooftop solar and small-scale batteries which are on track to potentially beat projections.

“The uptake of electric and hybrid vehicles is positive, although Australians will need to purchase many more to meet the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard.

“Also classified as ‘on track’ are upgrades to electricity transmission and new battery capacity and storage, which is needed to shift energy from day to night.

“The progress on batteries is particularly encouraging, given the challenges with stabilising the system as the proportion of renewable energy increases.”

Room for improvement

NZAu Steering Committee member Professor Belinda Wade said most factors around net zero were rated ‘at risk’.

“This includes domestic greenhouse gas emissions, which are declining but not at the rate we need to meet the 2050 target,” Professor Wade said.

“The build rate of new onshore wind and utility solar also needs to double to be on track for net zero by 2050.

“It’s worth noting that solar projects are getting larger, meaning more megawatts are being generated, but it’s still taking around 5 years for development.

“Also ‘at risk’ is the electrification, renewable fuels and the pipeline for carbon capture and storage to support decarbonisation of the industrial sector, and investment in renewable projects.”

Playing catch up

Dr Smart said the ‘off track’ category included historic and projected future capacity of gas-fired generation and projected land sector abatement.

“Land sector abatement, particularly through reafforestation and regenerative agriculture, may need to scale up by a factor of 100, and that is concerning for facilities and projects that may need to turn to offsets to meet Safeguard Mechanism requirements,” he said.

Dr Smart said overall, Australia had made good progress towards its climate goals in many areas.

“It’s not doom and gloom, but we need to at least keep it up or accelerate because the pace that’s required is very challenging,” he said.

“Some of these technologies are needing to be deployed at a growth rate of 10 per cent year-on-year compounding, which is a huge undertaking.”

Professor Chris Greig from Princeton University stressed the urgency of action in difficult sectors. 

“Land sector abatement and firming generation are currently off track, and these are not optional components of a net zero system,” Professor Greig said.

“We need CCS, large-scale reafforestation, regenerative agriculture and a much bigger commitment to firming gas generation to drive decarbonisation and maintain reliability.” 

Professor Michael Brear from the University of Melbourne said the report aims to provide clarity, and not alarm. 

“Australia needs a clear understanding of what is progressing well and where urgent attention is required,” Professor Brear said.

“We simply ask what is on track, what is off track, and what is at risk relative to our own assessments of the net zero task, as well as the assessments of others.” 

The researchers said it was critical to keep tracking Australia’s efforts towards net zero.   

“This check-up by independent experts helps identify where the bottlenecks are and where there might need to be more investment to overcome them,” Professor Wade said.

“It also suggests some practical approaches and frameworks to support policy makers, so we can continue to move toward this target which is so crucial.”

More details, including the project tracker, are available on the Net Zero Australia website.

Associate Professor Smart is from UQ’s School of Chemical Engineering. Professor Wade is from UQ’s Business School.