Wastewater samples reveal soaring illicit tobacco trends

University of Queensland researchers used samples taken across Australia and found while general tobacco use has declined, vaping and illicit tobacco rates have increased.

Postdoctoral Research Fellow Dr Zhe Wang, from the Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, said Australia was leading the world to reduce tobacco use through taxes and legislation, but there were some concerns this has led to an increase in illicit tobacco and vaping markets.

“Wastewater samples collected between 2017 and 2023 showed nicotine levels were decreasing across Australia, with the biggest drop recorded in outer regional and remote areas,” Dr Wang said.

“But our results also showed the proportion of illicit tobacco in wastewater increased from 9 per cent of the total tobacco to 33 per cent.

“Nicotine from vaping and other products, such as gum and patches, also increased from 5.4 per cent to 26.3 per cent.

“While some vaping products would have been accessed legally though medical prescriptions, there is concern that illegal vaping of tobacco is increasing due to the rising cost of cigarettes.”

Wastewater samples were collected from 55 treatment plants across Australia, which service more than 50 per cent of the population.

Illicit tobacco increased from about 1350 tonnes consumed in Australia to 3400 tonnes over the 7 years.

The research team cross-referenced wastewater samples with other data, including tobacco sales and illicit tobacco seizures, to confirm their results.

The wastewater analysis’s findings were referenced in the latest ITEC’s Commissioner’s report into illegal tobacco trading, which estimated half of all tobacco products sold in Australia are now illicit.

Associate Professor Phong Thai said it was good to see a general decline in tobacco, but the study highlighted more needs to be done to decrease the consumption rates.

“Smoking remains the leading risk factor for premature mortality and morbidity in Australia,” Dr Thai said.

“While the illicit tobacco market could slow progress towards Australia’s goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 5 per cent or less by 2030, it is reassuring that smoking continues to decline in the population.

“However, our findings show more efforts are needed at targeting the illicit tobacco market.”

The research is published in JAMA Network Open.