UQ to lead earthquake probe

A University of Queensland researcher will lead a new co-operative APEC project using high performance computers in four Pacific Rim countries to probe earthquake behaviour.

The project, called The APEC Co-operation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES), aims to develop realistic supercomputer simulation models of the complete earthquake generation process.

The models are expected to provide powerful tools for studying the cycle of events between earthquakes, particularly in their leadup. Ultimately, this may lead to breakthroughs in understanding earthquake precursors.

The international project co-ordinator is Associate Professor Peter Mora, director of the Queensland University Advanced Centre for Earthquake Studies (QUAKES).

Last month, Australia received the confirmations of participation in the multi-lateral project from China, Japan and the USA. The project's International Science Board is expected to hold its inaugural meeting at the University of Queensland in March.

Dr Mora, who developed the project, said Australia had proposed ACES as an international science project under APEC (the forum for Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation). It was endorsed during the Singapore APEC meeting in October last year.

Dr Mora said APEC member countries suffered most of the world's earthquakes and had a particularly high earthquake risk.

'Earthquakes are among the most costly and deadly natural disasters,' he said.

'The scientific approach involves developing a theoretical framework or simulation model describing nature.

'While there is currently no model for the complete earthquake generation process, advances in earthquake physics, numerical simulation methodology and in high performance computing offer the possibility to develop such models.'

Minister for Industry, Science and Technology John Moore said this was the first APEC science project to be led by Australia.

'The project indicates Australian scientists' ability to compete in the international arena and places Australia at the forefront in using high-performance computers to solve problems of global significance,' he said.

'The ACES project will also provide unique opportunities for Australians in advanced training in high performance computing applications.'

- In Australia, QUAKES aims to fill a fundamental knowledge gap in the earthquake process by developing a microscopic-based numerical simulation capability.

- In China, the State Seismological Bureau has extensive observations of seismic precursory phenomena and the Bureau's Centre for Analysis and Prediction has developed preliminary models for predicting earthquakes in a one-year time frame.

- In Japan, the Crustal Activity Modelling Program is a multi-institutional program to develop models for the earthquake generation process at the crustal scale.

- In the USA participants include the Southern California Earthquake Centre and the General Earthquake Model Group which is using multi-disciplinary approaches to study earthquakes, and developing models of the interacting earthquake fault system.

Dr Mora can be contacted on (07) 3365 2128