Model maps potential lumpy skin disease gateways to Australia

Two locations have been identified as the most likely entry points into Australia for a disease that poses a huge risk to the beef and dairy industries.

A University of Queensland-led team has built the first geospatial model to map where insects carrying lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) could arrive either blown by strong wind or carried on ships.

Professor Ricardo Soares Magalhães at UQ’s School of Veterinary Science said the findings show where future surveillance and preparation activities could be prioritised. 

“The Port Hedland and Dampier region in Western Australia showed the highest risk of insects hitchhiking into Australia on ships from locations known to have infections,” Professor Soares Magalhães said.  

“The northern tip of Cape York Peninsula was flagged as the location most exposed to windborne insect arrival, particularly during the summer months.

“The model we have built can be updated and refined as more detailed data or new information is available, or if the situation changes and a new outbreak location is identified outside of Australia.”

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is caused by a virus spread through the bites of insect vectors including mosquitoes, flies and ticks. It leads to skin nodules and lesions, fever and weight loss.

It has never been reported in Australia but has spread through Asia to reach Indonesia in 2022.

“Infected animals are in pain, they don’t want to move and become emaciated so there is a significant animal welfare issues as well as the loss of production,” Professor Soares Magalhães said.

“A case in Australia would likely lead to trade restrictions, particularly on exports of live cattle but also on beef and dairy products, leading to huge economic losses.

“While previous assessments indicated the risk of LSD coming to Australia was low, it is a huge country, so we wanted to explore whether that was true everywhere. 

“We’ve shown that strong winds have the potential to bring insects carrying LSDV hundreds of kilometres to particular areas in Far North Queensland and that Port Hedland in particular has commercial shipping to places in Southeast Asia known to have LSD. 

“This information is valuable to inform targeted and seasonal surveillance in shipping areas, on livestock properties, and in feral bovine populations.”

The paper has been published in Scientific Reports. 

Collaboration and acknowledgements