Federal budget 2026: UQ experts available

The 2026 federal budget is expected to focus on 3 key areas – tax reform, savings, and productivity and investment.

The University of Queensland has experts available to analyse the budget and comment across a range of topics including cost of living, tax, housing, education, health, energy transition, superannuation and entrenched disadvantage.

Below, a selection of UQ experts outline their expectations and key considerations ahead of budget night. 

Economy

Professor John Quiggin, School of Economics

Expertise: tax reform, NDIS and university policy.

“I’m expecting at least some changes to capital gains tax and the treatment of trusts, along with an increase in previously announced cuts to income taxes. Nothing much in expenditure, but there will doubtless be a lot of small announcements dressed up as big ones.”

Contact: j.quiggin@uq.edu.au, +61 7 3346 9646. 

Housing

Professor Shaun Bond, UQ Business School

Expertise: economics of housing, real-estate market and volatility in financial markets. 

“Housing and related tax policies will be a key feature of the budget this year. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are expected, with some investor tax concessions to be wound back, particularly for established properties. The budget is also expected to include significant measures to accelerate housing supply, support community and social housing, and expand assistance for first-home buyers.”

Contact: s.bond@business.uq.edu.au, +61 7 3343 1240. 

Health

Professor Brenda Gannon, School of Economics

Expertise: health and ageing economics, economic evaluation of health and social care systems and policies including Medicare, PBS, and the care economy across the lifespan.

“The Medicare Levy threshold will be increased by $1,000–2,000, removing some low-income earners from the levy. However, for people over 65, the private health insurance rebate will be lowered to the rebate provided to younger populations. The hope is to provide equity, however this does not take health needs into account. With increasing out-of-pocket expenses for health care, older people may now be reticent to use the healthcare services they need and less likely to take up health insurance. There is also a need to assess access to health and care based on an individual rather than combined household income to ensure individuals receive access to health and social care under a person-centred care framework.” 

Contact: brenda.gannon@uq.edu.au, +61 7 3346 1103.
 

Dr Sabrina Lenzen, Centre for the Business and Economics of Health 

Expertise: informal and formal care/aged care, dementia and ageing.

“With aged care spending already exceeding $41 billion a year and set to grow, the question isn't whether we invest more – it’s where. Prioritising home care now pays dividends later by delaying costly residential aged care entry and easing pressure on our hospital system. To fund this sustainably, and without burdening younger generations, Australia should look seriously at compulsory long-term care insurance – a model that has worked well in Germany and the Netherlands. Crucially, getting aged care funding right requires better access to timely data and rigorous, ongoing evaluation of recent reforms so we can learn quickly what is working and continuously improve.”

Contact: s.lenzen@uq.edu.au, +61 7 3443 1320. 

Superannuation

Dr Natalie Peng, UQ Business School 

Expertise: superannuation, retirement savings, household financial wellbeing and gender equity.

“This budget is likely to place household financial pressure, tax reform and intergenerational equity at the centre of the policy debate, with important implications for superannuation and retirement security. In superannuation, I will be watching how the government manages the implementation of major reforms including payday super, changes to tax concessions for very large balances and stronger support for low-income workers and parents receiving paid parental leave. The key question is whether the budget provides short-term cost-of-living relief while also strengthening long-term household financial resilience, particularly for women, renters, mortgage holders, low-income workers and people with interrupted work histories.”

Contact: x.peng@business.uq.edu.au, +61 7 3346 8061. 

Small business and innovation

Professor Martie-Louise Verreynne, Associate Dean (Research), Faculty of Business, Economics and Law

Expertise: small-business management and policy, innovation policy and research translation.

“Small businesses across Australia are continuing to navigate a difficult operating environment marked by rising costs, subdued consumer demand, labour shortages and ongoing productivity challenges. The key question for this federal budget is whether the government can provide meaningful support for innovation, digital adoption, skills and business investment – particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises – while still maintaining fiscal discipline and avoiding additional inflationary pressures. There will also be close attention on measures that strengthen research commercialisation and help smaller firms participate in Australia’s emerging advanced manufacturing and clean technology opportunities.”

Contact: m.verreynne@business.uq.edu.au, +61 7 3365 3320. 

Foreign policy

Professor Matt McDonald, School of Political Science and International Studies

Expertise: foreign and security policy, climate change policy.

“Even given international uncertainty and instability, the $50 billion spending increase on defence the government has committed to over forward estimates might come under scrutiny given the cost-of-living crisis facing Australians.”

Contact: matt.mcdonald@uq.edu.au, +61 7 3365 3042.

Social policy and disadvantage 

Professor Tim Reddel, Institute for Social Science Research

Expertise: social policy and place-based disadvantage.

“I am hoping for a coordinated package of measures across key agencies – including the Department of Social Services, Department of Employment and Workplace Relations and the National Indigenous Australians Agency – that builds on the 2023 federal budget’s $199.8 million package over 6 years to tackle entrenched community disadvantage. This package had a strong focus on breaking intergenerational poverty and improving child and family wellbeing through local, place-based approaches. While progress has been made, this needs to be built upon with the existing targeted communities and extended more broadly to also align with reforms to employment services for vulnerable people and Closing the Gap priorities, including community-led initiatives such as the Empowered Communities partnership. Improved collaboration with the states and territories is also critical.” 

Contact: tim.reddel@uq.edu.au, +61 7 3346 7801. 

Education

Associate Professor Ian Hardy, School of Education 

Expertise: educational policy and politics in relation to schooling and higher education. 

“With so much focus on cost-of-living pressures, including in the context of broader geopolitical volatility affecting fuel and other costs such as food and transport, education seems to have taken a back seat. However, there has also been greater attention to the needs of domestic students in the higher education space (including how to increase the participation of non-traditional students), perhaps at the cost of international students, who have often been framed within concerns about their impact on housing and migration. There has been a relative silence in relation to the schooling space.”

Contact: ian.hardy@uq.edu.au, +61 7 3365 6425. 

Environment and climate

Professor Belinda Wade, Chair in Climate Action and Ethical Transitions, UQ Business School

Expertise: the business of decarbonisation, climate transition and sustainability. 

“Acknowledging the current economic and geopolitical headwinds facing decarbonisation, a key consideration for this Budget is how to stay the course while supporting sectors operating under immediate pressure. I expect it will treat climate less as a standalone issue and more of a question of energy resilience and sector transformation. This means enabling credible, sector-wide transition pathways and corporate action that position industries for long-term competitiveness, while also addressing cost of living challenges and maintaining public trust.”

Contact: b.wade@business.uq.edu.au.